We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2025 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 12 to June 23, with the official Emmy nominations announced Tuesday, July 15. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 18 and ends the night of August 27. The 77th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 14, and air live on CBS at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

The State of the Race

One of the reasons why “Matlock” star Kathy Bates seems to be in such a good position to win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series, besides having been recognized for her performance at several of the winter awards shows, with wins at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, is that her show is only in its first season.

Of the past 10 winners in the category, half of them were for Season 1 of a series. Even if there are ultimately more episodes of “Matlock” (2024) than there are of “The Diplomat” as a whole, there is still a perception with voters that it is easier to catch up on why Bates is awardsworthy than to watch any of the more senior shows. It’s probably also worth noting that the Oscar winner has already won two Emmys as well.

But so has “The Handmaid’s Tale” star Elisabeth Moss, who represents the other trend in this category over the past decade: giving the Emmy to an actress saying goodbye to her role. Recent Emmy winner Anna Sawai (“Shōgun”) is the one overlap of both trends, and interestingly enough, Moss is one of the examples of someone who won for her first season, but “The Handmaid’s Tale” itself is also is an Outstanding Drama Series winner, so it would feel almost fitting to have its Emmy wins bookended by recognition for Moss one more time.

In terms of the other expected nominees, who are representing ongoing shows, the name that sticks out most is Britt Lower. The actress who plays both Helena and Helly on “Severance” was not nominated for the first season of the hit Apple TV+ series, but was given much more of a spotlight upon the show’s return, having one of the trickier dual roles.

Russell is in a similar boat, in the sense that Season 1 of “The Diplomat” was more of a tee up for Season 2 to really show her in action. That is even more literally true of Bella Ramsey on “The Last of Us,” as Ellie traverses the American West seeking revenge.

Lynskey, who also starred on “The Last of Us” Season 1, where she was nominated for an Emmy the same year as “Yellowjackets” Season 1, fits more cleanly into the box of someone who will win once their show is over, and her breakout Showtime hit is renewed for a fourth go round, so that possible win may be more than a year away.

But we’re just looking at nominations for now, and there are a few names that have built up a lot of goodwill with the Television Academy over the years, especially Emmy-nominated “Hacks” star Kaitlin Olson, with her procedural “High Potential,” a major hit for ABC.

Predicted Nominees:
Kathy Bates, “Matlock” (CBS)
Britt Lower, “Severance” (Apple TV+)
Melanie Lynskey, “Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)
Bella Ramsey, “The Last of Us” (HBO)
Keri Russell, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)

Contenders:
Sharon Horgan, “Bad Sisters” (Apple TV+)
Keira Knightley, “Black Doves” (Netflix)
Kaitlin Olson, “High Potential” (ABC)

In a Perfect World:
Marisa Abela, “Industry” (HBO)
Nicola Coughlan, “Bridgerton” (Netflix)
Lovie Simone, “Forever” (Netflix)

More Drama Category Predictions:
Outstanding Drama Series
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

View IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 77th Emmy Awards.

Last Year’s Winner: Anna Sawai, “Shōgun”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: None of the potential nominees are on an Emmys hot streak, and FX, the last network to win this award, does not have many Drama contenders this year. But it would be fascinating if Elisabeth Moss won for the final season of “The Handmaid’s Tale” on Hulu almost a decade after winning this category for her performance in the show’s premiere season.
Notable Ineligible Series: Imelda Staunton, “The Crown” (ended); Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon, “The Morning Show” (Season 4 is not eligible); Carrie Coon, “The Gilded Age” (Season 3 is not eligible); Maya Erskine, “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” (Season 2 is not eligible).